Stretched Thin: How Retailers Can Navigate the Holiday Surge with Leaner Teams

The holiday season is the ultimate make-or-break moment for brands and retailers, with U.S. holiday retail sales forecasted to reach an impressive $1.05 trillion in 2025¹—a 4.4% year-over-year increase. As the stakes rise, the ability to deliver flawless execution, maximize sales targets, and boost brand visibility hinges on preparation and resourcefulness.​

Up to 30% of annual revenue¹ for many retail categories depends on Q4 performance, amplifying the pressure on brands to execute efficiently and accurately.​ Still, shifts in consumer behaviors and increasingly unpredictable demand patterns heighten executional risk, pushing retailers to adapt quickly or risk falling behind.​

A Record Spending Season Meets Record-Low Hiring

Despite the rise in consumer spending, retailers are tightening their hiring plans—creating a widening gap between demand and in-store capacity. Seasonal retail hiring is projected to fall below 500,000 jobs this year, marking the lowest level since 2009. With fewer temporary workers to manage replenishment, resets, and peak traffic, many stores are entering the busiest shopping period of the year with leaner teams and heavier workloads. The result: overstretched staff, longer restock times, and increased risk of empty shelves just when shoppers are ready to buy. For many brands, the challenge isn’t just driving traffic—it’s having the people and processes in place to convert that demand into sales.

Supply Chain Strains and the Cost of Out-of-Stocks

Global out-of-stock (OOS) events remain a critical challenge, with an estimated $1.2 trillion annual loss² for retailers worldwide. Harvard Business Review shows that retailers lose nearly half of intended purchases when an item is unavailable.​

Stockout rates remain stubbornly high, averaging around 8%³—and can spike even higher during holiday promotions or peak seasons. Just a brief OOS window can drive walkouts and erode shopper loyalty.​ The added complexity of seasonal promotions, new product launches, and labor shortages drives up the risk of OOS events, further complicating shelf management and fulfillment.​

Why the Right Merchandising Partner Matters More Than Ever

With holiday hiring at its lowest point since 2009, retailers need more than extra hands—they need the right partner. An agile, innovation-driven merchandising partner can scale up or down quickly, move fast, and integrate seamlessly with your sales metrics to turn insights into smarter in-store decisions. The best partners don’t just execute—they think strategically, combining technology, analytics, and subject-matter expertise to work smarter at every shelf. Tech-enabled and analytics-driven, these specialized teams deliver consistent coverage across verticals while providing the flexibility, speed, and intelligence today’s retailers demand. As brands look for stability, reliability, and smarter execution, a boutique, proven merchandising partner becomes a competitive advantage—keeping shelves stocked, displays optimized, and performance measurable all season long.

Impact on Brand and Retailer Performance

Consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands risk more than lost sales; OOS or poorly merchandised products damage brand reputation and drive future purchase intent to competitors.​ More than half of consumers (52%)⁴ will abandon a purchase entirely if their preferred product is unavailable, according to Retail Dive, and McKinsey reports that 43%⁵ will switch brands on the spot. Brand loyalty can vanish in an instant, making optimized execution not just advantageous, but essential.​ Tech-enabled, field-driven merchandising lifts both sales and shopper satisfaction, turning browsers into buyers and maximizing conversion during holiday surges.​

Best Practices for Holiday Readiness

The following steps will help retailers and their suppliers optimize their go-to-market strategies and tactics during the holiday season:

• Plan Early, Align Often: Collaborate with trading partners early to synchronize promotional calendars, inventory targets, and in-store execution priorities by SKU and location.
• Use Predictive Insights: Apply data analytics to identify high-risk stores and categories prone to out-of-stocks or overstock, enabling proactive adjustments before peak demand hits.
• Enable Real-Time Visibility: Ensure live reporting, digital dashboards, and rapid issue escalation to maintain shelf availability and minimize lost sales.
• Deploy Tech-Driven Merchandisers: Leverage partners equipped with mobile technology, analytics, and AI-powered tools to ensure compliance, speed, and visibility at the shelf.
• Integrate Field Data with Sales Metrics: Combine merchandising insights with POS and sell-through data to inform smarter replenishment and promotional decisions.
• Scale Smarter, Not Harder: Partner with agile merchandising teams that can flex coverage quickly—adding labor where demand surges and optimizing costs where it doesn’t.
• Prioritize Store-Level Communication: Maintain tight feedback loops between field teams, store management, and headquarters to resolve issues before they affect customers.
• Invest in Training and Readiness: Ensure every in-store or third-party associate understands your brand standards, product priorities, and performance metrics to drive consistency across locations.
• Measure What Matters: Track KPIs like compliance rate, shelf availability, and execution speed to quantify ROI and continuously improve throughout the season.

This isn’t easy, but the resulting boost to the bottom line makes it more than worth the effort. It may even make holiday wishes come true for both retailers and brands.

Be Ready Before the Rush

Is your brand ready to execute at the speed, accuracy and consistency this holiday demands? Partnering with a proven third-party merchandising service can mean the difference between lost opportunities and peak performance—between out-of-stock and out-front this season. SPAR can help you ensure every promotion hits the mark, every shelf is ready and every consumer finds what they're looking for.